US May nonfarm payrolls 390K vs 325K estimate

The nonfarm payroll

Recent history of the US nonfarm payroll him
  • Prior report 428K (was expecting the 391K). Revised to 436K
  • nonfarm payroll 390K vs 325K estimate. Estimated range 250K to 477K
  • private payrolls 333 vs 325K estimate. Last month 406K.
  • unemployment rate 3.6% vs. 3.5% estimate. Last month 3.6%

US unemployment rate

US unemployment rate scrapes along lows
  • average hourly earnings
  • average hourly earnings YoY 5.2% vs. 5.2% est. Last month 5.5%
  • manufacturing payrolls 18K vs 40K estimate. Last 55K
  • participation rate 62.3% vs 62.2 percent last month
  • average workweek 34.6 hours vs 34.6 hours last month
  • U6 underemployment rate 7.1% vs 7.0% last month.
  • Goods producing jobs plus 59K. Building +30 6K
  • private service providing jobs plus 274K led by retail jobs +60.7 K
  • government jobs +57K vs. + 31K last month
  • In May, 7.4 percent of employed persons teleworked because of the coronavirus pandemic, down from 7.7 percent in the prior month.

Job changes by sector:

  • leisure and hospitality, 84K. Led by food services and drinking places +40 6K, and accommodation +21K
  • professional business services, 75K
  • transportation and warehousing, 47K
  • wholesale trade +14.1K
  • retail trade -60.7K
  • info +16K
  • financial activity, 8K
  • education and health services +74K
  • government, +57K
  • building, 36K
  • mining and logging +5K
  • manufacturing +18K

The US stocks have moved lower after the report with the

  • Down about -191 points.
  • The NASDAQ index is down -175 points while the
  • S&P is down -35 points

US yields are moving higher:

  • 2 year, 2.676%, +3 basis points
  • 5 year 2.971%, +6.2 basis points
  • 10 years 2.975%, +6 basis points
  • 30 years 3.146%, +7.1 basis points

In the US dollar, the greenback is moving higher:

  • EURUSD has moved from 1.0730 down to a low of 1.0703. That has taken the price back below the 100 and 200 hour moving averages between 1.0723 and 1.0717. Those levels are now close resistance
  • GBPUSD moved from 1.2550 down to a low of 1.2520. The current price trades at 1.25293. The price moved away from the converged 100 and 200 hour averages moving near 1.2576. Downside targets come in at 1.2524, and 1.2500 followed by the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the May 13 level at 1.24705
  • USDJPY has moved to the highest level since May 11. The price moved up from 130.11 up to a high of 130.64. The swing hi from May 11 comes in at 130.80. That is the next upside target. The move to the upside cracked above the high for the week from yesterday’s trade at 130.23

Strong data is bad for the Fed and rate expectations. That is helping to push down the US stocks and push-up rates. The only hope is that expectations of a slowdown is just around the corner.

Elon Musk said that he would look to cut workforce by 10% and has a bad feeling about the economy

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